MLB: Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview



2010-06-07

The Philadelphia Phillies offense seems to be coming around, but it still has a long way to go to get back to its normal prolific clip. The Phillies try to bounce back from a tough loss and take three of four from the San Diego Padres in Monday night's series finale at Citizens Bank Park. It is ESPN's Monday Night Game of the Week and the host Phillies are priced at -180 according to Sportsbook.com.
Philadelphia (30-25, -4.7 units) entered this set with the Padres having lost nine of 11 with its offense in shambles, plating a mere 14 runs over that stretch. The Phillies scored nine runs in winning the first two games against San Diego, but the team's formidable lineup is still not producing as expected.
In Saturday's 6-5, 10-inning loss, Philadelphia squandered several scoring chances, leaving 15 men on base and going 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position.
Although Philadelphia's seven-game winning streak over San Diego ended Sunday, the Phillies seem to have a good chance of bouncing back with Cole Hamels (5-4, 4.20 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) set to pitch in the finale.
Hamels, 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts against the Padres since 2008, is taking the ball in his normal spot in the rotation despite having an abbreviated start last time out and he and the Phillies are 20-7 when he starts after his team scored five or more runs in the previous contest.
San Diego (33-23, +12.6 units) won for the ninth time in 14 games Sunday, and can avoid losing its first series since being swept in a three-game set by the Los Angeles Dodgers from May 14-15 with a victory in the finale. The Padres are 11-4 after three or more consecutive road games this season.
The top of the Padres' lineup led the way Sunday with the 2-3-4 hitters - Jerry Hairston Jr., Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley - going a combined 10 for 15 with four runs. Gonzalez homered and drove in three, and is 9 for 19 with two homers and eight RBIs in his last four games. What is especially impressive is the Friars' 12-4 (+10.4 Units) record against the money line playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
Wade LeBlanc (2-4, 3.67, 1.551) hopes San Diego's offense can replicate that effort in the series finale as the left-hander tries to snap a four-start losing streak. LeBlanc, who has a 2.35 ERA in eight starts against NL opponents this season, hasn't pitched badly in three games during the losing skid - recording a 3.50 ERA - but hasn't received a single run of support in those outings. Against the New York Mets on Tuesday, LeBlanc allowed two runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss.
This will be LeBlanc's first career appearance against the Phillies.
Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -180 ML favorite with total of 9, yet they are just 5-10 (-13.3 Units) vs. the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last two seasons and 29-11 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. San Diego's bullpen held the Phillies in check yesterday and are 19-12 (+9.0 Units) against the ML after the pen gave up no runs and 10-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
This is the ESPN Monday Night matchup which starts at 7:00 Eastern with the Phils a shocking 1-8 at home against left-hand opposing starters.
StatFox Power Line Philadelphia -132

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