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MLB: Competitive Wednesday Baseball Board
2010-07-21
Wednesday’s full slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball stacks up as a competitive one, with only three games showing lines of minus-160 or higher according to Sportsbook.com, and only three games with starting pitcher WHIP differences of .200 or more. That said, it might take a bit more work to successfully handicap today’s action, looking specifically for more subtle edges. Let’s break down the schedule and see if we can’t uncover some value.
(901) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (902) CHICAGO CUBS (LILLY) 2:20 PM
Line: Chicago -155, Total: 8
Starting pitcher WHIP edge: Chicago
Bullpen WHIP edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago
Overall Analysis: The Cubs bats have come alive lately, but as StatFox readers know from yesterday’s feature piece, they have struggled horribly against bad teams this season. Both pitchers have fared well in their careers versus today’s opponent, but Myers is the hotter pitcher of late. Tough laying this price today.
(903) MILWAUKEE (WOLF) at (904) PITTSBURGH (DUKE) 7:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee -125, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Milwaukee
BP WHIP Edge: Pittsburgh
Offense Edge: Milwaukee (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Milwaukee
Overall Analysis: Milwaukee’s overall dominance of the Pirates in recent years (32-10 L3 years) has to be given consideration here, and the Brewers are producing a lot of runs via the long ball of late. The Pirates’ Duke has been rocked by Milwaukee in recent starts while Wolf has enjoyed a ton of success against Pittsburgh.
(905) SAN DIEGO (GARLAND) at (906) ATLANTA (HANSON) 7:10 PM
Line: Atlanta -155, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: San Diego
BP WHIP Edge: San Diego
Offense Edge: Atlanta
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One of the best games on today’s board, Atlanta and Hanson are being shown quite a bit of respect by oddsmakers. The Braves are 3-1 this season against San Diego. GARLAND is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 14.03 and a WHIP of 2.998 in his career. While the line and home field seem to give the overall edge to Atlanta, you can discount the Padres, particularly as the dogs.
(907) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (908) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
Line: Florida -115, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Florida
BP WHIP Edge: Colorado (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Colorado
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Rockies pounded the Marlins 10-0 on Tuesday to even up the current 4-game set at two games apiece. They are just 1-7 this season coming off a win by 6 runs or more. Though the Marlins are 4-3 in their L7 games, they have only batted .194 while producing 2.6 RPG during that span. Nolasco holds a significant edge historically versus opponent, with a 4-0 career won-lost mark and a WHIP of 0.967 against Colorado.
(909) WASHINGTON (STRASBURG) at (910) CINCINNATI (ARROYO) 7:10 PM
Line: Washington -115, Total: 7
SP WHIP Edge: Washington
BP WHIP Edge: Washington
Offense Edge: Cincinnati (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cincinnati
Overall Analysis: To show how much oddsmakers are favoring Strasburg these days, the Nationals are 15-33 on the road this season but still favored over the Reds, who are 31-20 at home. WASHINGTON is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Cincy seems to be finding a groove again since returning from their recent lengthy road trip. They are 4-1 on the current homestand. Worthy underdog look.
(911) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) at (912) ST LOUIS (GARCIA) 8:15 PM
Line: St. Louis -145, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: St. Louis
BP WHIP Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Offense Edge: St. Louis
Recent Play Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: As you can see from the edges, there isn’t a whole lot going for the Phillies in this third of a four game series versus the red-hot Cardinals. St. Louis has won seven straight games and is now 33-15 at home in 2010. Garcia has been stellar for the Cards as well, while Blanton owns an ugly 7.06 ERA on the road. With trade rumors also dogging the franchise, bet Philly at your own peril.
(913) NY METS (NIESE) at (914) ARIZONA (HAREN) 9:40 PM
Line: Arizona -120, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Arizona
BP WHIP Edge: NY Mets (LARGE)
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: Arizona has taken the first two games of the 3-game series versus New York, who continues to struggle on the road. The Mets are just 19-29 this season away from Citi Field, allowing opponents to bat .290. Niese has been a good stopper for them though and has put together four solid starts in a row. After losing last night as -125 favorites, an interesting trend finds MANUEL is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of NY METS. Don’t be surprised to see New York salvage this one.
(915) SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) at (916) LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) 10:10 PM
Line: LA Dodgers -140, Total: 7.5
SP WHIP Edge: San Francisco
BP WHIP Edge: Los Angeles
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: San Francisco (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: San Francisco is among the hottest teams in baseball right now, having won 11 of 13 games. The Dodgers have lost six straight. Despite this and the fact that Zito is enjoying the better season over Billingsley, who has been rocked in his last two starts, the Dodgers are still somewhat heavy favorites. Strangely, the money seems to be moving towards Los Angeles. Value here is clearly on the confident Giants.
(917) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (918) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) 12:35 PM
Line: Tampa Bay -200, Total: 9.5
SP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Tampa Bay
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One trend is very interesting to me in this game, BALTIMORE is 6-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. After last night’s huge come from behind, extra-inning win, it figures to be tough to lay the -220 against the O’s tonight, especially with a mediocre-of-late Shields getting the ball. Better plays on the board.
(919) LA ANGELS (PINEIRO) at (920) NY YANKEES (VAZQUEZ) 1:05 PM
Line: NY Yankees -175, Total: 9.0
SP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees
BP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Offense Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Angels pounded Phil Hughes last night en route to a 10-2 upset as +220 dogs. Today’s revenge spot shows a strong FoxSheets system: Play Against - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31 units. Rating = 4*). Early money seems to be landing with New York, but everything else I look at indicates a slight over-pricing here.
(921) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) at (922) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) 1:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -220, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Minnesota
BP WHIP Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cleveland
Overall Analysis: Minnesota hasn’t been this large of a favorite since May 8th. The difference here and then is that the Twins were playing far better baseball at that point in the season. They are just 9-16 in their L25 games now including back-to-back losses in this series in which they have yielded 30 hits to the Indians. Cleveland has won six games in a row and is playing as good as it has all year. Liriano and the hosts simply aren’t worthy of this price today.
(923) TORONTO (RZEPCZYNSKI) at (924) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) 2:10 PM
Line: Kansas City -155, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Kansas City (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Toronto
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: Toronto (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: Greinke opened as an exorbitant -170 favorite only to be bet down to -155 since. While he has pitched well of late, he certainly hasn’t commanded this type of price. Considering that the Jays have been getting it going of late with a 7-3 mark in their L10 games, including a 13-1 win last night, I’d be leery of laying the chalk here with the Royals. Good underdog spot.
(925) BOSTON (BUCHHOLZ) at (926) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 3:35 PM
Line: Boston -115, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Boston
BP WHIP Edge: Boston
Offense Edge: None at this point
Recent Play Edge: Oakland
Overall Analysis: Boston and Oakland have split the first two games of their 3-game set, with each contest being decided by a run. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one, with Buchholz getting the slight edge if only for his recent prowess. At -120, the StatFox Game Estimator and Power Ratings indicate that this game is underpriced for Boston by at least 25 cents, but savvy bettors have to give consideration to the bats missing from the Red Sox lineup.
(927) TEXAS (LEWIS) at (928) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
Line: Detroit -105, Total: 9
SP WHIP Edge: Texas (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Texas
Offense Edge: Texas
Recent Play Edge: Texas
Overall Analysis: What in the world is going on with the Tigers? Seven straight losses coming off a lengthy stretch in which they had gone 18-8. Pitching has been a huge problem in this current skid, as they have allowed opponents to score 6.1 RPG while hitting .294. Making matters worse today is that Detroit will be facing the Rangers’ Colby Lewis, who boasts an impressive 1.115 WHIP on the season and has had incredible command, striking out 112 hitters in just shy of 116 innings. Despite the fact that the two wins this week broke a 9-game losing streak in Detroit, you have to like the Rangers’ chances at a sweep.
(929) CHI WHITE SOX (FLOYD) at (930) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) 10:10 PM
Line: Seattle -135, Total: 6.5
SP WHIP Edge: Seattle
BP WHIP Edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: Seattle is on an extended stretch of awful play, with just a 3-14 mark in its L17 games. I can NEVER advocate backing a team like that in the role of favorite, even if its ace starting pitcher is on the hill. The White Sox have surged to the top of the Central Division and wins over the last two nights have them in the position to sweep here. I’d honestly be surprised if they don’t.
MLB: Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview2010-06-07The Philadelphia Phillies offense seems to be coming around, but it still has a long way to go to get back to its normal prolific clip. The Phillies try to bounce back from a tough loss and take three of four from the San Diego Padres in Monday night’s series finale at Citizens Bank Park. It is ESPN’s Monday Night Game of the Week and the host Phillies are priced at -180 according to Sportsbook.com.
Philadelphia (30-25, -4.7 units) entered this set with the Padres having lost nine of 11 with its offense in shambles, plating a mere 14 runs over that stretch. The Phillies scored nine runs in winning the first two games against San Diego, but the team’s formidable lineup is still not producing as expected.
In Saturday’s 6-5, 10-inning loss, Philadelphia squandered several scoring chances, leaving 15 men on base and going 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position.
Although Philadelphia’s seven-game winning streak over San Diego ended Sunday, the Phillies seem to have a good chance of bouncing back with Cole Hamels (5-4, 4.20 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) set to pitch in the finale.
Hamels, 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts against the Padres since 2008, is taking the ball in his normal spot in the rotation despite having an abbreviated start last time out and he and the Phillies are 20-7 when he starts after his team scored five or more runs in the previous contest.
San Diego (33-23, +12.6 units) won for the ninth time in 14 games Sunday, and can avoid losing its first series since being swept in a three-game set by the Los Angeles Dodgers from May 14-15 with a victory in the finale. The Padres are 11-4 after three or more consecutive road games this season.
The top of the Padres’ lineup led the way Sunday with the 2-3-4 hitters - Jerry Hairston Jr., Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley - going a combined 10 for 15 with four runs. Gonzalez homered and drove in three, and is 9 for 19 with two homers and eight RBIs in his last four games. What is especially impressive is the Friars’ 12-4 (+10.4 Units) record against the money line playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
Wade LeBlanc (2-4, 3.67, 1.551) hopes San Diego’s offense can replicate that effort in the series finale as the left-hander tries to snap a four-start losing streak. LeBlanc, who has a 2.35 ERA in eight starts against NL opponents this season, hasn’t pitched badly in three games during the losing skid - recording a 3.50 ERA - but hasn’t received a single run of support in those outings. Against the New York Mets on Tuesday, LeBlanc allowed two runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss.
This will be LeBlanc’s first career appearance against the Phillies.
Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -180 ML favorite with total of 9, yet they are just 5-10 (-13.3 Units) vs. the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last two seasons and 29-11 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. San Diego’s bullpen held the Phillies in check yesterday and are 19-12 (+9.0 Units) against the ML after the pen gave up no runs and 10-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
This is the ESPN Monday Night matchup which starts at 7:00 Eastern with the Phils a shocking 1-8 at home against left-hand opposing starters.
StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -132
MLB: Questions for World Series Game 6 2009-11-04Tonight either the New York Yankees win a 27th World Series or are pushed to a deciding Game 7. The beauty of a series is it evolves and takes on a life of its own, which is particularly true in baseball since every game involves two new starting pitchers that alter the dynamics from game to game. For the baseball bettor that means breaking the contest down into components in order to pick the right side or total. Here are Game 6’s most pressing questions. After reviewing these, decide whether or not the Yankees are worth the price of -200 at Sportsbook.com.
Can Andy Pettitte pitch effectively on three days’ rest?
This is the leading mystery coming into this confrontation and even Pettitte admits he has no idea how his arm will react. When asked what it’s like to throw on short rest, Pettitte responded, “Man, I don't even remember the last time I went on three days' rest,"
In fact, it was September 30, 2006, when still a member of the Houston Astros. The left-hander is not an excitable type and will likely focus his attention on breaking pitches and off-speed stuff if the fastball isn’t up to typical standards. Pettitte is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 career starts on three days' rest. With more adrenaline pumping in the playoffs, he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on short rest. Sportsbook.com has New York as -200 money line favorites. With Pettitte on the mound, his record is 36-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997. (Team's Record)
Manager Joe Girardi better hope this works tonight, otherwise he will be facing the critics before tomorrow’s Game 7 with Burnett and Pettitte both failing in using this pitching strategy.
What’s that cool breeze?
Every year different player’s end up having struggles in the playoffs or World Series and right now two guys are in the heart of each team’s lineup. Mark Teixeira is batting below .200 in the Fall Classic and has been fanned 16 times since postseason action commenced. His body language suggests he’s pressing, swinging harder after each strike. New York could use his normally potent bat to wrap up this series, since he contributed to Yankees 60-23 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.
Ryan Howard’s timing couldn’t be more off. His swing mechanics are a mess and he’s tied the World Series record for strikeouts with 13, with at least one more game to go. What makes hitting so intriguing is Howard could come up in the first inning and hit a soft liner the other way, just over Derek Jeter’s head and suddenly start sending rockets all around Yankee Stadium. Given Philadelphia is such a large underdog; his big bat could take the Phillies to 12-3 in road games after three or more consecutive home games this season.
How does manager Charley Manuel use Pedro Martinez?
Give Martinez credit, in two playoff starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings, striking out 11 and walking just two. Though the radar gun seldom sees 90 anymore, Pedro still struts around the mound like a peacock, acting like he owns the place. Look for Yankees hitters to be more patient this time and not be as inclined to swing at off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. It would be in Manuel’s best interest to start getting a pitcher ready once Martinez goes thru the batting order once, since he doesn’t have enough heat to keep New York batters honest and not sitting on off-speed tosses.
How cool is it right now to be Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?
For both these hitters, they are as ESPN’s Stewart Scott would say, “cool as the other side of the pillow”. They are working pitchers until they make the slightest mistake and rocketing shots like they are seeing batting practice speed beach balls. Each is capable of winning a game single-handily with the way they are swinging. Will Utley raise the Phillies playoff record to 21-8 the last two years and force a Game 7 or does A-Rod drop an “A-Bomb” (Yankees radio announcer John Sterling call) and New York is champion yet again and finishes the year 39-11 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.
What was learned from Game 5 that could determine winner for tonight?
The most important factor for the sports bettor is the OVER could well hit a fourth straight game. The first two contests of the World Series saw rested starting pitchers going deep in games, for a pair of Under’s. Since then, the two most power-laden team in the big leagues have hit homers in smallish parks against relief pitchers who have resembled an interleague matchup of the Orioles and Nationals.
If you take Mariano Rivera out of the equation, if either team trails buy almost any margin, they have to feel they can comeback against two bullpens short on getting outs quickly.
MLB: Heavenly Angels are Money-Makers2009-08-04The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim quietly moved ahead of more well-known teams like Boston and the New York Yankees, to be the best team in the American League with a 63-40 record. The Angels may not have made a lot of noise in climbing to be the best team in the AL, but they have excruciatingly loud with how they swing the bat. On Tuesday they’ll head to Chicago to start a 3-game set with the White Sox, and are backed by nearly 80% of early bettors at Sportsbook.com.
The Angels lead the Major Leagues in hitting with a .290 average. With the high batting average, they are also the No.1 scoring offense at 5.7 runs per game, helped dramatically by hitting .308 with runners in scoring position. Just how good is the Los Angeles offense, start considering these numbers.
Manager Mike Scioscia’s team plays its own version of merry-go-round, with 94 more total hits than the average AL team to this point of the season. The Halos are second in baseball in all important on-base percentage to the Yankees and are third in slugging percentage, despite hitting 40 less home runs than the Bronx Bombers (154 homers) and 45 less than second place Texas (159 homers).
To understand just how good Los Angeles has been playing, consider on June 12, they were 29-29 on the season. Since then, L.A. is 34-11, having picked up +21.65 units of profit in just over seven weeks. Over what is a quarter of the season during this stretch, the Angels are AVERAGING over seven runs per game. That includes not having two of their biggest sluggers, Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup since before the All-Star break when they swept the Yankees at the Big A.
Just this part weekend, L.A. traveled to Minnesota, who was just off a sweep of the Chicago White Sox and feeling pretty spry. All the Angels did was outscore the Twins 35-15, collecting at least 15 hits in each game, becoming just the second American League team since the 1938 Red Sox (Sept. 4-5) to score more than ten runs with at least 15 base hits in each of three straight games. The Cleveland Indians did so in the interim with 15-4, 13-5 and 17-9 victories over the Brewers at County Stadium (Sept. 4-6 1986) according to Elias Sports Bureau.
The Angels remarkable offense plays in the Windy City starting Tuesday against the White Sox. The domination of this newer Big Red Machine shows up in several other key areas. A test of a team’s strength is how they preside over other opponents. Scioscia’s squad leads the major’s in running from first to third and this dizzying pace has them at 27-12 in games decided by four or more runs. They are 14-7 (+14.6) as underdogs and one game behind Philadelphia for the best road record (31-20) in baseball, having won 15 of last 18 as visitors.
Are the Angels than true World Series contenders? Probably not, unless the offense can continue at near the same pace, this is unlikely to occur in the postseason. The Los Angeles pitching staff does not strike fear into opposing hitters with ERA of almost five. John Lackey’s pitching has improved as the season has won on, but he is no longer the hard thrower he was when the Halos won the World Series in 2002. Jered Weaver has started to pitch like a No. 4 starter again, after throwing like an ace early in the season. Joe Saunders is hitting a lot of bats and Ervin Santana is a shell of former self since coming back from injury.
The bullpen has gotten better after carrying ERA of 5.5 or worse into June, but could hardly be described as reliable. The Angels front office acted like a salesperson working without leads and did nothing to help out current team, despite many working parts in the minor leagues.
That is something to concern with later; right now the Angels are stuffing bankrolls. Parlay wagers on them with the OVER mean serious return on investment, with Los Angeles 61-37-5 OVER (No.1). Totals players can’t believe their great fortune with L.A. on 13-0 OVER run. Since July 1, the Angels and OVER has won on parlays 18 times.
It’s not always fun to follow the crowd and do what everyone else is doing, nevertheless, when money is ripe to be taken, playing these Angels and the total is heavenly.
MLB: Thursday’s Top System Suits Baltimore2009-06-11The return of interleague play picks up tomorrow; however before then is the matter of finishing off series’ within each team’s respective league. The Baltimore Orioles have been grounded since putting together a five-game winning streak at the end of May and have lost eight of last 10 games. The O’s could take a step in the right direction of ending this slump by overcoming Seattle and winning a series. A big-time betting system for today indicates they will do just that. Take a look before hitting the confirm button on your wager.
Baltimore’s troubles are easily traced to lack of hitting, as they have gotten as many as four runs only once in last 10 tries. The Orioles (25-34, -7.2 units) slump has seen them fall to ninth in batting average in the American League and 10th in runs scored. Today they will match up with a former teammate, now pitching for Seattle (29-30, -1.6 units), Garrett Olson.
The 25-year old Olson (0-1, 4.39 ERA) will be returning to Camden Yards for the first time, making his first appearance in another uniform. The left-hander gives up a lot of groundballs, which could be construed as bad luck, but most are hit with velocity and are quasi-line drives, just with a couple of bounces. Though the Orioles are far from pitching-rich, the biggest reason Olson was traded is he never developed an “out-pitch” to keep opposing batters off-balance and finish them off. This will be his fourth start and he has also come out of the bullpen six times this season, as the Mariners seek to find a role for Olson.
Sportsbook.com has Baltimore as a -156 money line favorite, with total of nine. A super situation arises this evening favoring the Birds and it reads this way:
PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -125 to -175, who are below average American League hitting team (BA .265 or less), against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.70 to 5.70, playing on a Thursday.
What this 84.1 percent system is telling us is if a team is below the norm as hitters, yet can still be this heavy a favorite, they must be in a very good situation. The record of 37-7 dates back to 1997 and in the last five years, this system has clicked off 10 of 11 winners, with average margin of victory 2.6 runs.
It is true, the Orioles are impatient lot, nevertheless, the Mariners are 13-30 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three or less walks a game. After completing your afternoon wagers, the O’s might be worth a look in night action.
MLB: White Sox vs. Rays Betting Preview 2008-10-03Think back to March of this year, the chances of Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox winning their divisions were about as good as an Alaskan governor being on a presidential ticket. Yet as October begins, all three of these unlikely events have occurred. Think about it, Tampa Bay had the worst record in baseball last season, losing 96 games, and was expected to finish below .500 again this year. The Rays had never won more than 70 games or finished higher than fourth in their division, yet went from worst to first in a division that included the Yankees and Red Sox.
Though not as stirring, the White Sox story is still compelling. After finishing 72-90 in 2007, Chicago was presumed to have a sore neck, looking up at Detroit and Cleveland all season. Instead, the White Sox young starting pitchers matured, the bullpen solidified for the most part and the big thumpers started hitting home runs again. The addition of several new everyday players like Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez and Orlando Cabrera helped put them over the top.
Managers Ozzie Guillen and the Rays Joe Maddon are about as different as Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. The Sox skipper has not met a microphone he wouldn’t speak into and Maddon is just a long time baseball guy, who was the perfect fit for a young team that needed an anchor in the dugout.
TBS announcers John Smoltz and Ron Darling see similarities to past teams about Tampa Bay. "I think [the Rays] mirror the [last-to-first] 1991 Braves in the sense that they have young pitching that looks, from afar, really talented, and barring any health issues they should be able to stay together for quite some time," said Smoltz. "People in baseball who have played them could see this coming. You never know when a team is going to turn it around; you never know when a team is going to click.”
Darling went further back in the way-back machine, drawing comparison to '69 Mets. “Because you're talking about, traditionally, a team that's almost been the laughing stock of the division," Darling said. "From top to bottom they've done an amazing job drafting and trading for veterans such as Cliff Floyd.”
Peter Gammons said back in spring training, Tampa Bay was the most athletic team in baseball and could finish over .500. They easily surpassed that number thanks to solid young starting pitching, a complete bullpen and an offense that is more National League in style. The Rays don’t throw a lot of flashy numbers around offensively, however were second in walks in the American League and six players had on-base percentage of .345 or higher.
The White Sox will come battle tested, having to win last three games just to be here, after losing five in a row. Chicago still has several players from the 2005 World Series championship team and has the long ball which can alter any contest in a moments notice.
StatFox Take: Whoever gives up home field advantage is probably sunk. Tampa Bay was the best in baseball at 57-24 and the Pale Hose were fourth at 54-28. Teams that have the ability to manufacture runs are normally in better shape in the postseason, then power teams, who can be shut down by better pitching. The White Sox are only 4-15 in last 19 games on the fake grass, batting .227. Tampa Bay has a decided edge with its first two pitchers at home and Guillen has to burn Buehrle on the road as opposed to pitching him at home where he’s fantastic. Hard to fathom Chicago winning three in a row if they drop the first two at the Trop.
Series odds from Bookmaker.com: White Sox +148, Rays -168
Thursday October 2
White Sox (Vazquez) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 2:30 EDT
Friday October 3
White Sox (Buehrle) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 6:00 EDT
Sunday October 5
Tampa Bay () at White Sox () TBD
Monday October 6
Tampa Bay at White Sox if necessary
Wednesday October 8
White Sox at Tampa Bay if necessary
Offensive – American League
Runs scored White Sox 5th Rays 9th
Home Runs White Sox 1st Rays 5th
Total Bases White Sox 4th Rays 8th
Slugging Ptc. White Sox 2nd Rays 8th
Walks White Sox 7th Rays 2nd
On base Ptc. White Sox 9th Rays 5th
Pitching & Defense
ERA White Sox 6th Rays 2nd
Strikeouts White Sox 3rd Rays 3rd
Walks White Sox 4th Rays 8th
On base Ptc. White Sox 3rd Rays 2nd
Putouts White Sox 3rd Rays 1st
Errors White Sox11th Rays 4th
MLB: Top Weekend Team Power Trends2008-07-28The final weekend of July baseball is on tap for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and seemingly as always, plenty of playoff contending teams will go head-to-head in key series’. In continuation of our well-received weekend feature, here is a quick look at the top action on the schedule, along with a key trend that will be in play for each of the 15 series’, taken right from the FoxSheets’ Power Searches. Of course, it all starts with Yankees-Red Sox. It doesn’t get any better than that in baseball.
The 3-game set between New York and Boston will once again highlight the betting board, and the games will be the 10th, 11th, and 12th time the rivals have met in 2008. Boston leads the series 5-4, but the Yankees too the most recent two at home about three weeks ago. In the only other series at Fenway this season, Boston took two of three in April. The Red Sox are thrilled to be back in Beantown, where they are 36-11, including 22-5 against teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game in ’08. The Yankees however, are riding a 6-game winning streak and have climbed back to within 3-games of the Sox. This current series should have as much at stake as any recent matchup of the rivals and should be hard fought.
The other big series in the American League also matches divisional rivals, this time the White Sox and Tigers from Detroit. The hosts are playing some of their best baseball of the season and have climbed to within 5-1/2 games of Chicago and the A.L. Central lead. The Tigers were the preseason favorite but have struggled to find consistency all year long. They’ll be looking for a repeat of the series of mid-June when they swept the Sox in three games in Motown. Chicago boasts a stellar 27-14 divisional record however.
In the senior circuit, there are three key series’ involving playoff contenders. The Cubs will continue a 4-game set with Florida looking to improve on the best home record in the league. The Phillies will look to rebound from a pair of back-to-back losses in New York when they host division rival Atlanta. Philadelphia has already won eight of nine games against the Braves in ’08. Finally, the Mets, now alone atop the N.L. East standings will welcome St. Louis to town. The Cardinals had seemingly been in control of the N.L. Wildcard race all season long until this week when the Brewers got the best of them in St. Louis. Tony LaRussa’s club will look to get it turned around as they begin a stretch of 10-straight games against the East, including the first six on the road.
With so much action to consider this weekend, here’s a quick look at a Top StatFox Power Trend affecting each individual series.
FLORIDA at CHICAGO CUBS
FLORIDA is 13-33 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA is 29-7 UNDER (+20.7 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 3.5, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 5*)
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 14-3 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)
ST LOUIS at NY METS
NY METS are 65-33 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY METS 4.8, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
COLORADO at CINCINNATI
COLORADO is 33-16 (+20.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 41-14 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.8, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 17-7 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.6, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at LA DODGERS
WASHINGTON is 1-15 (-14.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 4*)
LA ANGELS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 48-83 (-22.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT
CHI WHITE SOX are 27-14 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at BOSTON
BOSTON is 18-2 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was BOSTON 5.3, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 4*)
SEATTLE at TORONTO
SEATTLE is 16-37 (-22.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 3.6, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 3*)
MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
MINNESOTA is 18-5 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY
TAMPA BAY is 2-15 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.9, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at OAKLAND
TEXAS is 9-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 7.1, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 3*)
Two games dominate the landscape in Week 5 of CFL action. Montreal and British Columbia will meet trying to keep pace with conference leaders. The Alouettes are seeking to reconnect to winning ways, while the Lions will try for three victories in a row. (Free Foxsheet ready for this encounter) On Sunday, unbeaten Saskatchewan hosts Toronto, facing former quarterback, Kerry Joseph, who led them to Grey Cup title last season. Plenty of emotion for both players and fans alike in this matchup. The oddity of every team that has won the game outright, has covered the spread in all 16 contests played continues.
CFL: CFL Week 5 Action
Two games dominate the landscape in Week 5 of CFL action. Montreal and British Columbia will meet trying to keep pace with conference leaders. The Alouettes are seeking to reconnect to winning ways, while the Lions will try for three victories in a row. On Sunday, unbeaten Saskatchewan hosts Toronto, facing former quarterback, Kerry Joseph, who led them to Grey Cup title last season. Plenty of emotion for both players and fans alike in this matchup. The oddity of every team that has won the game outright, has covered the spread in all 16 contests played continues.
Friday, July 25
